{ "id": "supply_planning", "title": "How long are manufacturers' order books, and how much stock do they hold?", "label": "Public data", "source": "US Census Bureau, Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3), seasonally adjusted; Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI), as already stored in data/analyses/supply_chain.json", "source_urls": { "m3_home": "https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/index.html", "m3_zip": "https://www.census.gov/econ_getzippedfile/?programCode=M3", "m3_full_report_pdf": "https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/prel/pdf/s-i-o.pdf", "m3_api": "https://api.census.gov/data/timeseries/eits/m3", "m3_definitions": "https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/definitions/index.html", "m3_historical": "https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/historical_data/index.html" }, "license": { "m3": "US Census Bureau data, a work of the US federal government and in the public domain in the United States. Credited as Census credits its own tables: 'Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) Survey.'", "gscpi": "New York Fed Terms of Use (last updated 6/9/2023): a non-exclusive license to access, download, copy, distribute and modify the Content, on conditions. Credit line used: \"© 2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Content from the New York Fed subject to the Terms of Use at newyorkfed.org.\" The GSCPI is not an official estimate of the New York Fed, its President, the Federal Reserve System or the FOMC, and it is a product of the New York Fed's Applied Macroeconomics and Econometrics Center. Values here are rounded to 2 decimals (the download has more digits); no other change was made." }, "retrieved": "2026-10-12", "m3_data_updated": "Friday, 02-Oct-26 09:02:34 EDT", "period": "Jan 1992 to August 2026 (M3); Jan 2019 to September 2026 (GSCPI on this page)", "latest_month": "2026-08", "units": { "VS": [ "Value of Shipments", "MLN$" ], "UO": [ "Unfilled Orders", "MLN$" ], "TI": [ "Total Inventories", "MLN$" ], "IS": [ "Inventories to Shipments Ratios", "RATIO" ], "US": [ "Unfilled Orders to Shipments Ratios", "RATIO" ] }, "query": "Census M3 database file (econ_getzippedfile, programCode=M3), seasonally adjusted rows (is_adj = 1) for Total Manufacturing (MTM), Durable Goods (MDM), Computer and Electronic Products (34S), Transportation Equipment (36S), Nondefense Aircraft and Parts (NAP) and Defense Aircraft and Parts (DAP); data types IS (inventories to shipments ratio), US (unfilled orders to shipments ratio), UO, VS and TI (millions of dollars).", "derived": "Months of backlog for aircraft and parts = unfilled orders at the end of the month divided by the average monthly shipments of the last 12 months (that month and the 11 before), rounded to 0.1. Census does not publish an unfilled orders ratio for these two industries; a 12-month average is used because aircraft shipments move a lot from month to month.", "question": "How long are U.S. manufacturers' order books, how much stock do they hold against shipments, and how does a planner decide which builds can start?", "kpis": [ { "value": "14.44", "label": "Transportation equipment, months of orders waiting", "note": "unfilled orders to shipments, August 2026 (preliminary); 14.00 a year earlier" }, { "value": "$722.0B", "label": "Nondefense aircraft and parts, unfilled orders", "note": "August 2026; $656.6B a year earlier" }, { "value": "41.8", "label": "Nondefense aircraft and parts, months of backlog", "note": "computed: unfilled orders over the last 12 months' average shipments" }, { "value": "2.01", "label": "Computers and electronics, inventories to shipments", "note": "August 2026; 2.13 a year earlier" } ], "finding": "In August 2026 (preliminary) U.S. transportation equipment makers had unfilled orders worth 14.44 months of shipments, against 6.87 for all durable goods and 5.83 for computers and electronics. The order book for nondefense aircraft and parts was $722.0 billion, about 41.8 months of its average shipments over the last year. Inventories were 1.48 months of shipments across manufacturing, down from 1.56 a year earlier. The breakdown adds a clear-to-build check on example data.", "caveat": "Every M3 figure is in current dollars, not adjusted for price. The latest month (August 2026) is preliminary and the month before it revised; both move with the next full report. Census says its historical revisions and seasonal models stay unchanged for the rest of 2026. The unfilled orders to shipments ratio excludes industries with no unfilled orders, and for computers and electronics it excludes semiconductors (Census, Table 7 notes). These are industry totals: they describe the whole U.S. industry, not any one company.", "release": { "m3": "Full report for August 2026 released Oct 2, 2026 (database file updated Friday, 02-Oct-26 09:02:34 EDT); the full report for September 2026 is due Nov 3, 2026.", "gscpi": "October 2026 release (the 'Oct-26' column of the NY Fed interactive data), carrying data through September 2026; the NY Fed updates on the fourth business day of each month, which was October 6, 2026 (holidays not checked). NY Fed revises past values every release." }, "latest": { "MDM_US": { "value": 6.87, "year_ago": 6.93 }, "34S_US": { "value": 5.83, "year_ago": 5.95 }, "36S_US": { "value": 14.44, "year_ago": 14.0 }, "MTM_IS": { "value": 1.48, "year_ago": 1.56 }, "34S_IS": { "value": 2.01, "year_ago": 2.13 }, "36S_IS": { "value": 1.76, "year_ago": 1.84 }, "NAP_UO_musd": { "value": 722022.0, "year_ago": 656571.0 }, "DAP_UO_musd": { "value": 79878.0, "year_ago": 70840.0 }, "34S_UO_musd": { "value": 160786.0, "year_ago": 149915.0 }, "36S_UO_musd": { "value": 1009858.0, "year_ago": 919197.0 }, "MTM_UO_musd": { "value": 1609602.0, "year_ago": 1478883.0 }, "NAP_backlog_months": { "value": 41.8, "year_ago": 42.8 }, "DAP_backlog_months": { "value": 14.1, "year_ago": 13.9 } }, "unfilled_orders_vs_2019_avg_pct": { "NAP": 35.0, "DAP": 20.5, "34S": 30.9, "36S": 36.2 }, "extremes": { "MDM_US": { "max": { "month": "2020-04", "value": 7.87, "months_at_value": 1 }, "min": { "month": "2000-01", "value": 3.65, "months_at_value": 2 } }, "34S_US": { "max": { "month": "2012-08", "value": 6.92, "months_at_value": 1 }, "min": { "month": "1997-08", "value": 3.54, "months_at_value": 2 } }, "36S_US": { "max": { "month": "2009-01", "value": 19.34, "months_at_value": 1 }, "min": { "month": "2000-01", "value": 6.55, "months_at_value": 1 } }, "MTM_IS": { "max": { "month": "2020-04", "value": 1.88, "months_at_value": 1 }, "min": { "month": "2005-12", "value": 1.14, "months_at_value": 1 } }, "34S_IS": { "max": { "month": "2022-12", "value": 2.27, "months_at_value": 4 }, "min": { "month": "2004-12", "value": 1.25, "months_at_value": 1 } }, "36S_IS": { "max": { "month": "2020-04", "value": 3.79, "months_at_value": 1 }, "min": { "month": "2004-03", "value": 1.08, "months_at_value": 1 } }, "NAP_backlog": { "max": { "month": "2021-03", "value": 63.9, "months_at_value": 1 }, "min": { "month": "1999-08", "value": 15.6, "months_at_value": 1 } }, "DAP_backlog": { "max": { "month": "2001-10", "value": 24.1, "months_at_value": 1 }, "min": { "month": "2010-08", "value": 11.4, "months_at_value": 1 } }, "gscpi_since_2019": { "month": "2021-12", "value": 4.43 } }, "series_us_ratio": [ [ "1992-01", 5.54, 5.25, 12.36 ], [ "1992-02", 5.47, 5.45, 11.75 ], [ "1992-03", 5.26, 5.27, 11.56 ], [ "1992-04", 5.2, 5.04, 11.47 ], [ "1992-05", 5.19, 5.09, 11.56 ], [ "1992-06", 5.12, 5.11, 11.19 ], [ "1992-07", 5.03, 4.88, 10.99 ], [ "1992-08", 5.03, 4.99, 11.14 ], [ "1992-09", 5.05, 4.94, 11.47 ], [ "1992-10", 5.03, 4.89, 11.12 ], [ "1992-11", 4.94, 4.9, 10.71 ], [ "1992-12", 4.87, 4.96, 10.44 ], [ "1993-01", 4.88, 4.93, 10.64 ], [ "1993-02", 4.85, 4.84, 10.39 ], [ "1993-03", 4.79, 4.92, 10.3 ], [ "1993-04", 4.79, 4.98, 10.04 ], [ "1993-05", 4.68, 4.96, 9.81 ], [ "1993-06", 4.65, 4.77, 10.01 ], [ "1993-07", 4.75, 4.78, 10.51 ], [ "1993-08", 4.66, 4.75, 9.97 ], [ "1993-09", 4.6, 4.71, 10.2 ], [ "1993-10", 4.47, 4.66, 9.41 ], [ "1993-11", 4.46, 4.63, 9.71 ], [ "1993-12", 4.35, 4.49, 9.59 ], [ "1994-01", 4.35, 4.47, 9.13 ], [ "1994-02", 4.32, 4.38, 9.33 ], [ "1994-03", 4.34, 4.44, 9.28 ], [ "1994-04", 4.28, 4.24, 9.31 ], [ "1994-05", 4.22, 4.23, 9.14 ], [ "1994-06", 4.23, 4.31, 9.01 ], [ "1994-07", 4.16, 4.18, 8.87 ], [ "1994-08", 4.14, 4.22, 8.64 ], [ "1994-09", 4.19, 4.3, 9.09 ], [ "1994-10", 4.14, 4.23, 8.79 ], [ "1994-11", 4.1, 4.04, 8.85 ], [ "1994-12", 4.01, 4.19, 8.73 ], [ "1995-01", 3.94, 4.05, 8.25 ], [ "1995-02", 3.97, 4.06, 8.42 ], [ "1995-03", 4.04, 4.05, 8.67 ], [ "1995-04", 3.96, 4.04, 8.38 ], [ "1995-05", 4.03, 4.01, 8.6 ], [ "1995-06", 3.99, 4.0, 8.51 ], [ "1995-07", 4.02, 4.18, 8.58 ], [ "1995-08", 3.98, 3.97, 8.65 ], [ "1995-09", 3.92, 3.9, 8.37 ], [ "1995-10", 3.97, 4.03, 8.53 ], [ "1995-11", 3.97, 3.96, 8.46 ], [ "1995-12", 3.83, 3.85, 8.21 ], [ "1996-01", 4.13, 4.19, 9.05 ], [ "1996-02", 4.21, 4.13, 9.1 ], [ "1996-03", 4.14, 3.98, 9.66 ], [ "1996-04", 4.15, 4.06, 9.21 ], [ "1996-05", 4.09, 4.0, 8.84 ], [ "1996-06", 4.05, 3.95, 8.9 ], [ "1996-07", 4.2, 4.05, 9.14 ], [ "1996-08", 4.12, 3.97, 8.88 ], [ "1996-09", 4.1, 3.88, 9.02 ], [ "1996-10", 4.25, 3.9, 9.82 ], [ "1996-11", 4.17, 3.79, 9.52 ], [ "1996-12", 4.14, 3.75, 9.47 ], [ "1997-01", 4.24, 3.85, 9.48 ], [ "1997-02", 4.08, 3.71, 8.99 ], [ "1997-03", 4.07, 3.72, 8.97 ], [ "1997-04", 3.98, 3.64, 8.56 ], [ "1997-05", 4.07, 3.68, 8.82 ], [ "1997-06", 3.96, 3.57, 8.69 ], [ "1997-07", 3.96, 3.56, 8.34 ], [ "1997-08", 4.0, 3.54, 8.77 ], [ "1997-09", 4.0, 3.62, 8.68 ], [ "1997-10", 4.04, 3.56, 8.95 ], [ "1997-11", 4.06, 3.73, 8.71 ], [ "1997-12", 4.06, 3.59, 8.83 ], [ "1998-01", 4.14, 3.83, 9.01 ], [ "1998-02", 3.96, 3.67, 8.31 ], [ "1998-03", 3.92, 3.63, 8.34 ], [ "1998-04", 4.02, 3.74, 8.41 ], [ "1998-05", 4.0, 3.81, 8.44 ], [ "1998-06", 4.05, 3.67, 9.24 ], [ "1998-07", 4.11, 3.9, 9.26 ], [ "1998-08", 4.01, 3.9, 8.3 ], [ "1998-09", 3.95, 3.71, 8.18 ], [ "1998-10", 3.88, 3.77, 7.53 ], [ "1998-11", 3.83, 3.74, 7.38 ], [ "1998-12", 3.82, 3.61, 7.65 ], [ "1999-01", 3.82, 3.74, 7.28 ], [ "1999-02", 3.81, 3.64, 7.43 ], [ "1999-03", 3.86, 3.63, 7.61 ], [ "1999-04", 3.8, 3.69, 7.22 ], [ "1999-05", 3.73, 3.68, 7.06 ], [ "1999-06", 3.75, 3.55, 7.54 ], [ "1999-07", 3.76, 3.54, 7.46 ], [ "1999-08", 3.67, 3.66, 6.81 ], [ "1999-09", 3.76, 3.73, 7.35 ], [ "1999-10", 3.7, 3.79, 6.95 ], [ "1999-11", 3.75, 3.93, 7.09 ], [ "1999-12", 3.76, 4.22, 6.96 ], [ "2000-01", 3.65, 4.02, 6.55 ], [ "2000-02", 3.88, 4.07, 7.55 ], [ "2000-03", 3.78, 4.04, 7.4 ], [ "2000-04", 3.65, 3.95, 6.89 ], [ "2000-05", 3.71, 3.95, 6.83 ], [ "2000-06", 3.9, 4.33, 7.38 ], [ "2000-07", 3.91, 4.31, 7.64 ], [ "2000-08", 3.95, 4.24, 7.64 ], [ "2000-09", 3.92, 4.23, 7.59 ], [ "2000-10", 4.0, 4.24, 7.99 ], [ "2000-11", 4.06, 4.27, 8.14 ], [ "2000-12", 4.02, 4.24, 8.06 ], [ "2001-01", 4.1, 4.18, 8.36 ], [ "2001-02", 4.02, 4.2, 7.98 ], [ "2001-03", 4.11, 4.3, 8.34 ], [ "2001-04", 4.26, 4.46, 8.71 ], [ "2001-05", 4.12, 4.52, 8.26 ], [ "2001-06", 4.16, 4.36, 8.06 ], [ "2001-07", 4.24, 4.52, 8.23 ], [ "2001-08", 4.19, 4.57, 8.14 ], [ 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8.03 ], [ "2004-04", 4.28, 4.93, 8.39 ], [ "2004-05", 4.27, 5.04, 8.12 ], [ "2004-06", 4.27, 5.07, 8.29 ], [ "2004-07", 4.3, 4.99, 8.64 ], [ "2004-08", 4.28, 4.98, 8.46 ], [ "2004-09", 4.29, 5.16, 8.53 ], [ "2004-10", 4.24, 4.99, 8.35 ], [ "2004-11", 4.31, 5.06, 8.76 ], [ "2004-12", 4.25, 5.02, 8.65 ], [ "2005-01", 4.13, 5.12, 8.06 ], [ "2005-02", 4.24, 5.14, 8.52 ], [ "2005-03", 4.24, 5.05, 8.47 ], [ "2005-04", 4.12, 5.15, 7.8 ], [ "2005-05", 4.26, 5.14, 8.28 ], [ "2005-06", 4.37, 5.2, 8.65 ], [ "2005-07", 4.49, 5.28, 9.07 ], [ "2005-08", 4.46, 5.19, 8.84 ], [ "2005-09", 4.49, 5.23, 9.21 ], [ "2005-10", 4.43, 5.14, 8.8 ], [ "2005-11", 4.52, 5.1, 9.19 ], [ "2005-12", 4.51, 4.96, 9.03 ], [ "2006-01", 4.6, 4.92, 9.85 ], [ "2006-02", 4.67, 4.82, 10.01 ], [ "2006-03", 4.77, 4.85, 10.53 ], [ "2006-04", 4.88, 4.86, 10.91 ], [ "2006-05", 4.83, 4.87, 10.64 ], [ "2006-06", 4.89, 4.87, 10.95 ], [ "2006-07", 5.03, 5.03, 11.4 ], [ "2006-08", 4.87, 4.87, 10.63 ], [ "2006-09", 5.1, 4.96, 11.52 ], [ "2006-10", 5.18, 5.15, 11.48 ], [ "2006-11", 5.22, 5.05, 11.47 ], [ "2006-12", 5.18, 5.13, 11.44 ], [ "2007-01", 5.38, 5.26, 11.87 ], [ "2007-02", 5.32, 5.03, 11.9 ], [ "2007-03", 5.3, 5.0, 11.87 ], [ "2007-04", 5.34, 5.03, 12.26 ], [ "2007-05", 5.37, 5.07, 12.13 ], [ "2007-06", 5.44, 4.96, 12.58 ], [ "2007-07", 5.53, 5.39, 12.34 ], [ "2007-08", 5.58, 5.16, 12.6 ], [ "2007-09", 5.62, 5.02, 13.11 ], [ "2007-10", 5.69, 5.14, 13.02 ], [ "2007-11", 5.72, 5.1, 13.34 ], [ "2007-12", 5.86, 5.04, 14.11 ], [ "2008-01", 5.84, 4.97, 13.87 ], [ "2008-02", 5.93, 5.16, 14.26 ], [ "2008-03", 6.09, 5.17, 14.84 ], [ "2008-04", 5.97, 5.07, 14.45 ], [ "2008-05", 6.11, 4.96, 15.11 ], [ "2008-06", 6.11, 5.12, 15.09 ], [ "2008-07", 6.19, 5.17, 15.48 ], [ "2008-08", 6.39, 5.25, 16.59 ], [ "2008-09", 6.47, 5.16, 17.03 ], [ "2008-10", 6.78, 5.46, 17.99 ], [ "2008-11", 7.0, 5.51, 19.04 ], [ "2008-12", 7.19, 5.51, 18.96 ], [ "2009-01", 7.53, 5.79, 19.34 ], [ "2009-02", 7.35, 5.69, 18.48 ], [ "2009-03", 7.36, 5.76, 18.08 ], [ "2009-04", 7.54, 6.07, 18.38 ], [ "2009-05", 7.57, 6.08, 18.7 ], [ "2009-06", 7.39, 5.87, 18.15 ], [ "2009-07", 7.26, 5.72, 18.41 ], [ "2009-08", 7.17, 5.72, 17.85 ], [ "2009-09", 6.82, 5.75, 15.79 ], [ "2009-10", 6.79, 5.59, 16.41 ], [ "2009-11", 6.56, 5.58, 15.49 ], [ "2009-12", 6.33, 5.73, 14.76 ], [ "2010-01", 6.31, 5.57, 14.52 ], [ "2010-02", 6.38, 5.61, 15.33 ], [ "2010-03", 6.26, 5.59, 15.03 ], [ "2010-04", 6.2, 5.6, 14.78 ], [ "2010-05", 6.18, 5.71, 14.82 ], [ "2010-06", 6.16, 5.88, 14.43 ], [ "2010-07", 6.1, 5.67, 13.55 ], [ "2010-08", 6.17, 5.76, 14.25 ], [ "2010-09", 6.19, 5.89, 14.31 ], [ "2010-10", 6.2, 5.69, 14.38 ], [ "2010-11", 6.21, 5.58, 14.67 ], [ "2010-12", 6.14, 5.92, 14.33 ], [ "2011-01", 6.08, 5.84, 14.11 ], [ "2011-02", 6.12, 6.04, 13.91 ], [ "2011-03", 5.97, 6.1, 13.63 ], [ "2011-04", 6.07, 5.88, 13.91 ], [ "2011-05", 6.09, 5.99, 14.18 ], [ "2011-06", 6.09, 6.25, 14.3 ], [ "2011-07", 6.07, 6.2, 13.95 ], [ "2011-08", 6.08, 6.09, 14.12 ], [ 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54.6, 13.2, 467.6, 62.6, 8.56, 4.75 ], [ "2022-02", 54.3, 13.3, 471.0, 62.8, 8.67, 4.71 ], [ "2022-03", 54.4, 13.3, 471.5, 62.1, 8.66, 4.66 ], [ "2022-04", 55.2, 13.4, 472.2, 61.6, 8.55, 4.6 ], [ "2022-05", 54.8, 13.4, 471.6, 61.3, 8.61, 4.57 ], [ "2022-06", 55.0, 14.5, 471.8, 66.0, 8.58, 4.56 ], [ "2022-07", 55.4, 14.5, 474.4, 65.4, 8.56, 4.51 ], [ "2022-08", 54.0, 14.9, 472.1, 66.6, 8.74, 4.48 ], [ "2022-09", 53.7, 14.6, 472.9, 65.0, 8.81, 4.46 ], [ "2022-10", 53.1, 14.7, 476.0, 64.9, 8.96, 4.43 ], [ "2022-11", 51.1, 14.6, 470.1, 64.2, 9.2, 4.41 ], [ "2022-12", 50.4, 14.6, 475.5, 64.5, 9.44, 4.42 ], [ "2023-01", 50.0, 14.7, 476.9, 65.2, 9.53, 4.45 ], [ "2023-02", 49.6, 14.7, 476.3, 65.3, 9.6, 4.43 ], [ "2023-03", 48.3, 15.0, 480.2, 66.3, 9.93, 4.42 ], [ "2023-04", 48.4, 15.6, 484.7, 69.4, 10.01, 4.45 ], [ "2023-05", 47.5, 15.5, 491.8, 69.4, 10.35, 4.47 ], [ "2023-06", 47.8, 15.7, 509.5, 70.3, 10.67, 4.48 ], [ "2023-07", 47.1, 15.6, 516.8, 70.1, 10.96, 4.51 ], [ "2023-08", 46.4, 15.6, 519.1, 70.5, 11.19, 4.51 ], [ "2023-09", 46.8, 15.7, 533.1, 70.7, 11.39, 4.51 ], [ "2023-10", 46.1, 15.5, 535.2, 70.5, 11.6, 4.54 ], [ "2023-11", 46.6, 15.4, 549.4, 70.4, 11.78, 4.56 ], [ "2023-12", 48.1, 15.3, 570.4, 70.0, 11.86, 4.56 ], [ "2024-01", 48.3, 15.2, 569.0, 69.5, 11.79, 4.57 ], [ "2024-02", 47.8, 15.0, 570.2, 69.1, 11.93, 4.61 ], [ "2024-03", 48.9, 14.9, 575.3, 68.9, 11.77, 4.64 ], [ "2024-04", 48.6, 14.7, 575.8, 68.5, 11.84, 4.67 ], [ "2024-05", 49.6, 14.7, 576.9, 69.0, 11.62, 4.69 ], [ "2024-06", 48.5, 14.7, 568.5, 68.7, 11.72, 4.69 ], [ "2024-07", 46.6, 14.7, 569.2, 69.3, 12.21, 4.71 ], [ "2024-08", 45.6, 14.8, 568.3, 70.0, 12.47, 4.73 ], [ "2024-09", 45.2, 14.7, 568.4, 69.8, 12.58, 4.75 ], [ "2024-10", 45.6, 14.8, 571.4, 70.2, 12.53, 4.75 ], [ "2024-11", 46.3, 14.7, 572.9, 70.2, 12.37, 4.78 ], [ "2024-12", 45.7, 14.8, 572.8, 71.0, 12.52, 4.8 ], [ "2025-01", 43.8, 14.8, 572.7, 71.3, 13.08, 4.82 ], [ "2025-02", 42.4, 15.0, 571.7, 72.5, 13.49, 4.85 ], [ "2025-03", 43.1, 14.9, 594.9, 72.7, 13.81, 4.88 ], [ "2025-04", 41.7, 14.7, 595.8, 72.2, 14.29, 4.91 ], [ "2025-05", 43.0, 14.3, 638.9, 71.0, 14.84, 4.97 ], [ "2025-06", 43.3, 13.9, 651.1, 70.0, 15.03, 5.03 ], [ "2025-07", 43.2, 13.7, 651.7, 69.3, 15.08, 5.07 ], [ "2025-08", 42.8, 13.9, 656.6, 70.8, 15.33, 5.1 ], [ "2025-09", 42.4, 14.5, 661.5, 74.6, 15.6, 5.15 ], [ "2025-10", 41.0, 14.5, 661.1, 75.2, 16.12, 5.2 ], [ "2025-11", 41.1, 14.5, 680.5, 76.1, 16.54, 5.24 ], [ "2025-12", 41.1, 14.6, 691.0, 77.6, 16.8, 5.3 ], [ "2026-01", 41.2, 14.4, 699.7, 77.2, 16.97, 5.34 ], [ "2026-02", 40.9, 14.3, 700.5, 76.8, 17.12, 5.37 ], [ "2026-03", 40.3, 14.3, 697.7, 77.6, 17.33, 5.41 ], [ "2026-04", 41.4, 14.4, 717.5, 78.4, 17.32, 5.45 ], [ "2026-05", 41.2, 14.6, 717.7, 79.8, 17.41, 5.45 ], [ "2026-06", 40.9, 14.6, 717.6, 80.5, 17.54, 5.5 ], [ "2026-07", 41.2, 14.3, 719.5, 80.0, 17.45, 5.58 ], [ "2026-08", 41.8, 14.1, 722.0, 79.9, 17.26, 5.67 ] ], "series_aircraft_backlog_columns": [ "month", "NAP months of backlog", "DAP months of backlog", "NAP unfilled orders $B", "DAP unfilled orders $B", "NAP 12-month average shipments $B", "DAP 12-month average shipments $B" ], "series_gscpi_since_2019": [ [ "2019-01", 0.46 ], [ "2019-02", 0.1 ], [ "2019-03", 0.19 ], [ "2019-04", -0.01 ], [ "2019-05", -0.61 ], [ "2019-06", -0.51 ], [ "2019-07", -0.47 ], [ "2019-08", -0.3 ], [ "2019-09", 0.07 ], [ "2019-10", 0.03 ], [ "2019-11", 0.08 ], [ "2019-12", -0.03 ], [ "2020-01", -0.03 ], [ "2020-02", 1.21 ], [ "2020-03", 2.64 ], [ "2020-04", 3.47 ], [ "2020-05", 2.57 ], [ "2020-06", 2.26 ], [ "2020-07", 2.85 ], [ "2020-08", 1.34 ], [ "2020-09", 0.51 ], [ "2020-10", 0.02 ], [ "2020-11", 0.71 ], [ "2020-12", 1.68 ], [ "2021-01", 1.41 ], [ "2021-02", 2.03 ], [ "2021-03", 2.3 ], [ "2021-04", 2.82 ], [ "2021-05", 3.1 ], [ "2021-06", 2.76 ], [ "2021-07", 2.93 ], [ "2021-08", 3.36 ], [ "2021-09", 3.45 ], [ "2021-10", 4.02 ], [ "2021-11", 4.39 ], [ "2021-12", 4.43 ], [ "2022-01", 3.73 ], [ "2022-02", 2.81 ], [ "2022-03", 2.89 ], [ "2022-04", 3.52 ], [ "2022-05", 2.8 ], [ "2022-06", 2.48 ], [ "2022-07", 1.9 ], [ "2022-08", 1.55 ], [ "2022-09", 1.14 ], [ "2022-10", 1.25 ], [ "2022-11", 1.32 ], [ "2022-12", 1.36 ], [ "2023-01", 1.02 ], [ "2023-02", -0.27 ], [ "2023-03", -1.21 ], [ "2023-04", -1.31 ], [ "2023-05", -1.56 ], [ "2023-06", -1.08 ], [ "2023-07", -0.95 ], [ "2023-08", -1.02 ], [ "2023-09", -0.64 ], [ "2023-10", -0.37 ], [ "2023-11", 0.2 ], [ "2023-12", -0.13 ], [ "2024-01", -0.29 ], [ "2024-02", -0.18 ], [ "2024-03", -0.38 ], [ "2024-04", -0.97 ], [ "2024-05", -0.59 ], [ "2024-06", -0.3 ], [ "2024-07", -0.04 ], [ "2024-08", 0.2 ], [ "2024-09", 0.13 ], [ "2024-10", -0.37 ], [ "2024-11", -0.37 ], [ "2024-12", -0.36 ], [ "2025-01", -0.26 ], [ "2025-02", -0.12 ], [ "2025-03", -0.25 ], [ "2025-04", -0.34 ], [ "2025-05", 0.18 ], [ "2025-06", -0.01 ], [ "2025-07", 0.03 ], [ "2025-08", -0.08 ], [ "2025-09", -0.04 ], [ "2025-10", -0.15 ], [ "2025-11", -0.21 ], [ "2025-12", 0.47 ], [ "2026-01", 0.36 ], [ "2026-02", 0.49 ], [ "2026-03", 0.63 ], [ "2026-04", 1.78 ], [ "2026-05", 1.81 ], [ "2026-06", 1.21 ], [ "2026-07", 0.93 ], [ "2026-08", 1.2 ], [ "2026-09", 1.28 ] ], "checks": [ "63 values in the August 2026 full report (released October 2, 2026; Tables 1, 3, 4 and 7, June 2026 to August 2026, seasonally adjusted) equal the M3 database file: 0 differences.", "All 9,984 monthly values of the 24 series used equal the Census M3 API (api.census.gov, timeseries/eits/m3, seasonally adjusted): 0 differences.", "The published inventories-to-shipments ratios recompute as total inventories / shipments, rounded to 0.01, for all manufacturing, computers and electronics, and transportation equipment: 0 of 1,248 months differ.", "The transportation equipment unfilled orders ratio recomputes as unfilled orders / (shipments less automobiles, light trucks and heavy duty trucks, the industries Census lists as having no unfilled orders), rounded to 0.01: 0 of 416 months differ by more than rounding.", "Category labels (Total Manufacturing, Durable Goods, Computer and Electronic Products, Transportation Equipment, Nondefense Aircraft and Parts, Defense Aircraft and Parts) asserted against the file's CATEGORIES section.", "GSCPI rows are copied unchanged from data/analyses/supply_chain.json (October 2026 release, checked against the New York Fed download on Oct 7, 2026; see VERIFY.md section 4)." ], "row_count": { "m3_months": 416, "aircraft_backlog_months": 405, "gscpi_months": 93 }, "recompute": { "is_ratio_months_off_by_more_than_rounding": { "MTM": 0, "34S": 0, "36S": 0 }, "us_ratio_36S_months_off_by_more_than_rounding": 0 }, "full_report": { "report_month": "August 2026", "released": "October 2, 2026", "next_release": "November 3, 2026", "values_checked": 63, "differences": [] } }