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Analysis 10 of 10Sales

Where is residential solar demand now?

Where should a residential solar rep in LA County focus in 2026, and how has the shift to the Net Billing Tariff changed what sells?

The short answer Batteries are now close to the norm: 75.8% of Net Billing Tariff systems include one, against 16.1% on the old NEM 2.0 tariff. The April 15, 2023 switch set off a rush (11,410 applications received in March 2023 against 2,721 in December 2022) and then a pullback. Demand is highest in Lancaster and Palmdale, and the installer field is fragmented: Sunrun holds 25.6% and no other installer more than 5.6%.

  • Public data, not my business
  • SCE territory only, not LADWP
  • Summary tables only
Source
California DGStats Interconnected Applications, SCE 5-year export, California DGStats (PG&E, SCE, SDG&E / CPUC)
Period
Sep 2021 to Aug 2026
Licence
No open license; the publisher's Terms of Use apply
Charts
4, each with its data table and CSV

Key figures

  • 17,422LA County (SCE) installs, last 12 moresidential, approved applications
  • 75.8%Battery share, net billing systemsvs 16.1% on the old NEM 2.0 tariff, by each system's tariff (by approval date: 52.4% vs 12.8%)
  • $4.34Median cost per watt, PV-onlypost-NBT, no storage, vs $4.53 pre-NBT (storage-attached systems cost more per watt and are excluded here for a fair comparison)
  • 25.6%Top installer market shareSunrun, last 12 months, of approvals that name an installer

The charts

Chart 1Lead chart · trend

The April 2023 tariff change set off a rush, then a pullback.

How did the switch to the Net Billing Tariff change demand?

Applications received spiked to 11,410 in March 2023, against 2,721 in December 2022, ahead of the switch from NEM 2.0 to the Net Billing Tariff, then fell. Received counts for the latest months are low because applications still pending are not in the file.
Download CSV

California DGStats (SCE) · public data, not my business

Applications by month: 56 rows. monthly_interconnections in solar.json. A blank cell means the month is outside that series.
MonthApplications receivedApplications approved
2022-011,4931,335
2022-021,5611,468
2022-031,7341,798
2022-041,6331,602
2022-051,7821,690
2022-061,8411,676
2022-071,8561,708
2022-082,2972,149
2022-092,4252,214
2022-102,5322,553
2022-112,3952,296
2022-122,7212,541
2023-014,0061,923
2023-025,8521,464
2023-0311,4101,882
2023-048,0451,385
2023-051991,275
2023-062703,671
2023-073573,730
2023-085324,085
2023-095322,691
2023-106593,149
2023-117591,936
2023-127641,492
2024-011,0712,226
2024-029991,649
2024-031,1271,530
2024-041,1481,485
2024-051,1551,206
2024-069631,364
2024-079731,205
2024-081,0901,580
2024-091,1021,387
2024-101,1771,309
2024-111,1381,126
2024-121,1341,152
2025-011,3111,114
2025-021,1921,063
2025-031,3871,331
2025-041,3971,374
2025-051,1251,541
2025-061,0871,411
2025-071,1531,352
2025-081,0861,301
2025-091,9831,259
2025-101,5391,436
2025-111,384930
2025-121,6212,160
2026-011,0551,672
2026-029771,507
2026-031,1941,469
2026-041,2981,696
2026-059531,175
2026-061,2011,442
2026-078571,495
2026-085751,181

Chart 2Trend

Batteries went from the exception to the norm.

How often does a new system include a battery?

By month approved: 12.8% of systems had storage before April 15, 2023 and 52.4% after. Many systems approved after that date were filed earlier on the old tariff; by tariff, 75.8% of net billing systems have a battery.
Download CSV

California DGStats (SCE) · public data, not my business

Battery share: 60 rows. storage_attach_rate in solar.json, by month approved.
Month approvedShare of installs with storage (%)
2021-0918.4
2021-1017.3
2021-1116
2021-1213.6
2022-0111.6
2022-0214
2022-0315.4
2022-0412.7
2022-0512.5
2022-0612
2022-0713.5
2022-0811.4
2022-0912.5
2022-1013.4
2022-1111.2
2022-1210.6
2023-0113.5
2023-0211.8
2023-039.5
2023-049.6
2023-0511.9
2023-065.2
2023-0711.5
2023-0817.8
2023-0913.5
2023-1023.1
2023-1127.3
2023-1230.7
2024-0135.8
2024-0244.1
2024-0348.9
2024-0454.5
2024-0554.5
2024-0657.8
2024-0761.7
2024-0859.3
2024-0967
2024-1070.4
2024-1166.7
2024-1264.9
2025-0170.4
2025-0274.4
2025-0373
2025-0477.9
2025-0581
2025-0677.3
2025-0782.7
2025-0881.1
2025-0981.1
2025-1077.8
2025-1178.2
2025-1283.1
2026-0183.9
2026-0283.6
2026-0378.9
2026-0481.5
2026-0584.2
2026-0681.3
2026-0782
2026-0881.2

Chart 3Ranking by place

The Antelope Valley leads LA County solar demand.

Where in LA County (SCE territory) are systems going in?

Lancaster and Palmdale, both SCE territory, drove more installs than any other city in the last 12 months. Raw counts, not per-household rates, so this partly reflects population size and a housing stock weighted toward single-family homes.
Download CSV

California DGStats (SCE) · public data, not my business

Top cities: 12 rows. top_cities in solar.json, approvals in the last 12 months to Aug 31, 2026.
CityInstalls, last 12 months
Lancaster1,755
Palmdale1,047
Santa Clarita890
Long Beach889
Whittier515
Arcadia455
Pomona407
Valencia406
Los Angeles352
Torrance321
Covina292
Carson281

Chart 4Ranking

Sunrun leads, but the market is fragmented.

Who installs the systems?

Sunrun holds 25.6% of the last 12 months of approvals that name an installer; the next installer, Tesla Energy Operations Inc, holds 5.6%, and 694 installers appear in the period.
Download CSV

California DGStats (SCE) · public data, not my business

Installers: 11 rows. installer_share in solar.json, of approvals that name an installer.
InstallerShare of installs, last 12 months (%)
Sunrun25.6
Tesla Energy Operations Inc5.6
Bright Ops4.3
G A F Energy Llc3.4
Freedom Forever3.3
South West Builders2.4
Solara Home Energy Llc1.8
Orange County Contracting Services1.6
V3 Electric Inc1.6
Solar Tech Energy Systems Inc1.5
Other installers49

01Findings

What the charts say.

  1. Applications rushed in before the April 15, 2023 tariff change (11,410 received in March 2023) and fell after.

    Chart 1

  2. By tariff, 75.8% of Net Billing Tariff systems have a battery against 16.1% on NEM 2.0; by month approved, the share has been above 80% in each of the last 5 months.

    Chart 2

  3. Lancaster (1,755) and Palmdale (1,047) had the most installs in the last 12 months.

    Chart 3

  4. Sunrun holds 25.6% of recent installs that name an installer; the next, Tesla Energy, 5.6%; 694 installers appear in the period.

    Chart 4

02Method

How the figures were built.

Steps

  1. Filtered to Service County = Los Angeles (matched without regard to capitalisation; one in-window row is spelled LOS ANGELES), Customer Sector = Residential, within SCE's service territory.
  2. Kept only genuine install/expansion application statuses (Interconnected and Expansion-*), dropping administrative-only records like corrections, duplicates, and withdrawals.
  3. Cast date, system size, storage, and cost fields to proper types; parsed 'Storage Capacity (kWh)' into a has_storage flag.
  4. Cleared Cost/Watt values outside a plausible $0.10-$50/W range (a small number of data-entry outliers) rather than trying to guess a corrected value.
  5. Checked whether Cost/Watt bundles storage cost: storage-attached systems show notably higher Total System Cost for only modestly larger system_size_kw, so storage cost is bundled in. Median cost/watt is therefore reported separately for PV-only and storage-attached systems rather than as one mixed pre/post NBT number.
  6. Grouped installers outside the top 10 by 12-month volume into an 'Other installers' category for the market-share chart.
  7. Published only summary tables (counts, sums and a few precomputed medians), not applications. The 12 largest cities are named; every other city, and any city or installer cell with fewer than 10 applications, is combined into an 'All other' row so totals still add up. Row-level data is not republished because of the publisher's Terms of Use; the figures were computed from the publisher's file.

416,755 applications in the publisher's file, 102,529 in scope, published as 1,125 summary rows. Every derived figure on this page (changes, indexes, averages, counts) is computed from the published rows, and the table under each chart says how.

Checks

  • 17 checks passed against the publisher's published summaries; a statewide file (PG&E, SCE, SDG&E) was used only for cross-checks.
  • Cost per watt is reported separately for PV-only and storage systems, because storage cost is bundled into the total.
  • Each table on this page is the published chart data in solar.json, shown row for row.

The queries

The query runs on the table la_solar_by_city, la_solar_by_tariff, la_solar_received_by_month, la_solar_last_12_months, la_solar_medians (five summary tables). Open it in Live SQL, which runs DuckDB in your browser on the same public tables; the query loads ready to run.

Battery share by tariff

Open in Live SQL
SELECT nem_tariff, SUM(n) AS n, round(100.0*SUM(CASE WHEN has_storage THEN n ELSE 0 END)/SUM(n),1) AS storage_attach_pct FROM la_solar_by_tariff WHERE nem_tariff IN ('2.0', 'NBT') GROUP BY 1 ORDER BY 1

Median system size (kW) by year

Open in Live SQL
SELECT CAST(year_approved AS VARCHAR) AS yr, round(median_system_size_kw, 1) AS median_kw, n_systems AS n FROM la_solar_medians WHERE slice = 'by_year' ORDER BY 1

Third-party-owned share by year

Open in Live SQL
SELECT CAST(extract(year FROM month_approved) AS VARCHAR) AS yr, round(100.0*SUM(n_third_party_yes)/SUM(n_third_party_known),1) AS tpo_pct FROM la_solar_by_city GROUP BY 1 ORDER BY 1

Top 10 cities, last 12 months

Open in Live SQL
SELECT name AS city, n FROM la_solar_last_12_months WHERE breakdown = 'city' AND NOT is_remainder ORDER BY n DESC LIMIT 10

Caveats

  • Covers only Southern California Edison territory; the City of Los Angeles (LADWP) and other municipal utilities (Burbank, Glendale, Pasadena) are not included, so this is LA County within SCE's service area, not the whole county. The source file is the publisher's 5-year SCE-only export (approved dates from September 2021 onward), not the full multi-utility statewide history. The file leaves out applications still pending, so received counts for the latest months are low. Only summary tables are published: the publisher's Terms of Use restrict extracting or distributing its content, so row-level data is not republished and every figure was computed from the publisher's file. In the city and installer breakdowns, any cell with fewer than 10 applications is combined into an 'All other' row; the tariff and period table has no place or installer, so its small cells are kept.

Releases and revisions

  • As of Aug 31, 2026. Pending applications are not in the file, so recent received counts rise as they are approved.

03Sources

Sources and licence.

Licence: No open license; the publisher's Terms of Use apply. Public data, not my business.

Download the chart data

Each CSV is made in your browser from the rows in that chart's table.

All ten analyses on the Dashboard

04Contact

Want this kind of breakdown on your own data?

Open to e-commerce, data and operations roles. Los Angeles or remote.