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Analysis 10 of 10Sales
Where is residential solar demand now?
Where should a residential solar rep in LA County focus in 2026, and how has the shift to the Net Billing Tariff changed what sells?
The short answer Batteries are now close to the norm: 75.8% of Net Billing Tariff systems include one, against 16.1% on the old NEM 2.0 tariff. The April 15, 2023 switch set off a rush (11,410 applications received in March 2023 against 2,721 in December 2022) and then a pullback. Demand is highest in Lancaster and Palmdale, and the installer field is fragmented: Sunrun holds 25.6% and no other installer more than 5.6%.
- Public data, not my business
- SCE territory only, not LADWP
- Summary tables only
- Source
- California DGStats Interconnected Applications, SCE 5-year export, California DGStats (PG&E, SCE, SDG&E / CPUC)
- Period
- Sep 2021 to Aug 2026
- Licence
- No open license; the publisher's Terms of Use apply
- Charts
- 4, each with its data table and CSV
- Data file
- data/solar.json
Key figures
- 17,422LA County (SCE) installs, last 12 moresidential, approved applications
- 75.8%Battery share, net billing systemsvs 16.1% on the old NEM 2.0 tariff, by each system's tariff (by approval date: 52.4% vs 12.8%)
- $4.34Median cost per watt, PV-onlypost-NBT, no storage, vs $4.53 pre-NBT (storage-attached systems cost more per watt and are excluded here for a fair comparison)
- 25.6%Top installer market shareSunrun, last 12 months, of approvals that name an installer
The charts
Chart 1Lead chart · trend
The April 2023 tariff change set off a rush, then a pullback.
How did the switch to the Net Billing Tariff change demand?
California DGStats (SCE) · public data, not my business
| Month | Applications received | Applications approved |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-01 | 1,493 | 1,335 |
| 2022-02 | 1,561 | 1,468 |
| 2022-03 | 1,734 | 1,798 |
| 2022-04 | 1,633 | 1,602 |
| 2022-05 | 1,782 | 1,690 |
| 2022-06 | 1,841 | 1,676 |
| 2022-07 | 1,856 | 1,708 |
| 2022-08 | 2,297 | 2,149 |
| 2022-09 | 2,425 | 2,214 |
| 2022-10 | 2,532 | 2,553 |
| 2022-11 | 2,395 | 2,296 |
| 2022-12 | 2,721 | 2,541 |
| 2023-01 | 4,006 | 1,923 |
| 2023-02 | 5,852 | 1,464 |
| 2023-03 | 11,410 | 1,882 |
| 2023-04 | 8,045 | 1,385 |
| 2023-05 | 199 | 1,275 |
| 2023-06 | 270 | 3,671 |
| 2023-07 | 357 | 3,730 |
| 2023-08 | 532 | 4,085 |
| 2023-09 | 532 | 2,691 |
| 2023-10 | 659 | 3,149 |
| 2023-11 | 759 | 1,936 |
| 2023-12 | 764 | 1,492 |
| 2024-01 | 1,071 | 2,226 |
| 2024-02 | 999 | 1,649 |
| 2024-03 | 1,127 | 1,530 |
| 2024-04 | 1,148 | 1,485 |
| 2024-05 | 1,155 | 1,206 |
| 2024-06 | 963 | 1,364 |
| 2024-07 | 973 | 1,205 |
| 2024-08 | 1,090 | 1,580 |
| 2024-09 | 1,102 | 1,387 |
| 2024-10 | 1,177 | 1,309 |
| 2024-11 | 1,138 | 1,126 |
| 2024-12 | 1,134 | 1,152 |
| 2025-01 | 1,311 | 1,114 |
| 2025-02 | 1,192 | 1,063 |
| 2025-03 | 1,387 | 1,331 |
| 2025-04 | 1,397 | 1,374 |
| 2025-05 | 1,125 | 1,541 |
| 2025-06 | 1,087 | 1,411 |
| 2025-07 | 1,153 | 1,352 |
| 2025-08 | 1,086 | 1,301 |
| 2025-09 | 1,983 | 1,259 |
| 2025-10 | 1,539 | 1,436 |
| 2025-11 | 1,384 | 930 |
| 2025-12 | 1,621 | 2,160 |
| 2026-01 | 1,055 | 1,672 |
| 2026-02 | 977 | 1,507 |
| 2026-03 | 1,194 | 1,469 |
| 2026-04 | 1,298 | 1,696 |
| 2026-05 | 953 | 1,175 |
| 2026-06 | 1,201 | 1,442 |
| 2026-07 | 857 | 1,495 |
| 2026-08 | 575 | 1,181 |
Chart 2Trend
Batteries went from the exception to the norm.
How often does a new system include a battery?
California DGStats (SCE) · public data, not my business
| Month approved | Share of installs with storage (%) |
|---|---|
| 2021-09 | 18.4 |
| 2021-10 | 17.3 |
| 2021-11 | 16 |
| 2021-12 | 13.6 |
| 2022-01 | 11.6 |
| 2022-02 | 14 |
| 2022-03 | 15.4 |
| 2022-04 | 12.7 |
| 2022-05 | 12.5 |
| 2022-06 | 12 |
| 2022-07 | 13.5 |
| 2022-08 | 11.4 |
| 2022-09 | 12.5 |
| 2022-10 | 13.4 |
| 2022-11 | 11.2 |
| 2022-12 | 10.6 |
| 2023-01 | 13.5 |
| 2023-02 | 11.8 |
| 2023-03 | 9.5 |
| 2023-04 | 9.6 |
| 2023-05 | 11.9 |
| 2023-06 | 5.2 |
| 2023-07 | 11.5 |
| 2023-08 | 17.8 |
| 2023-09 | 13.5 |
| 2023-10 | 23.1 |
| 2023-11 | 27.3 |
| 2023-12 | 30.7 |
| 2024-01 | 35.8 |
| 2024-02 | 44.1 |
| 2024-03 | 48.9 |
| 2024-04 | 54.5 |
| 2024-05 | 54.5 |
| 2024-06 | 57.8 |
| 2024-07 | 61.7 |
| 2024-08 | 59.3 |
| 2024-09 | 67 |
| 2024-10 | 70.4 |
| 2024-11 | 66.7 |
| 2024-12 | 64.9 |
| 2025-01 | 70.4 |
| 2025-02 | 74.4 |
| 2025-03 | 73 |
| 2025-04 | 77.9 |
| 2025-05 | 81 |
| 2025-06 | 77.3 |
| 2025-07 | 82.7 |
| 2025-08 | 81.1 |
| 2025-09 | 81.1 |
| 2025-10 | 77.8 |
| 2025-11 | 78.2 |
| 2025-12 | 83.1 |
| 2026-01 | 83.9 |
| 2026-02 | 83.6 |
| 2026-03 | 78.9 |
| 2026-04 | 81.5 |
| 2026-05 | 84.2 |
| 2026-06 | 81.3 |
| 2026-07 | 82 |
| 2026-08 | 81.2 |
Chart 3Ranking by place
The Antelope Valley leads LA County solar demand.
Where in LA County (SCE territory) are systems going in?
California DGStats (SCE) · public data, not my business
| City | Installs, last 12 months |
|---|---|
| Lancaster | 1,755 |
| Palmdale | 1,047 |
| Santa Clarita | 890 |
| Long Beach | 889 |
| Whittier | 515 |
| Arcadia | 455 |
| Pomona | 407 |
| Valencia | 406 |
| Los Angeles | 352 |
| Torrance | 321 |
| Covina | 292 |
| Carson | 281 |
Chart 4Ranking
Sunrun leads, but the market is fragmented.
Who installs the systems?
California DGStats (SCE) · public data, not my business
| Installer | Share of installs, last 12 months (%) |
|---|---|
| Sunrun | 25.6 |
| Tesla Energy Operations Inc | 5.6 |
| Bright Ops | 4.3 |
| G A F Energy Llc | 3.4 |
| Freedom Forever | 3.3 |
| South West Builders | 2.4 |
| Solara Home Energy Llc | 1.8 |
| Orange County Contracting Services | 1.6 |
| V3 Electric Inc | 1.6 |
| Solar Tech Energy Systems Inc | 1.5 |
| Other installers | 49 |
01Findings
What the charts say.
Applications rushed in before the April 15, 2023 tariff change (11,410 received in March 2023) and fell after.
By tariff, 75.8% of Net Billing Tariff systems have a battery against 16.1% on NEM 2.0; by month approved, the share has been above 80% in each of the last 5 months.
Lancaster (1,755) and Palmdale (1,047) had the most installs in the last 12 months.
Sunrun holds 25.6% of recent installs that name an installer; the next, Tesla Energy, 5.6%; 694 installers appear in the period.
02Method
How the figures were built.
Steps
- Filtered to Service County = Los Angeles (matched without regard to capitalisation; one in-window row is spelled LOS ANGELES), Customer Sector = Residential, within SCE's service territory.
- Kept only genuine install/expansion application statuses (Interconnected and Expansion-*), dropping administrative-only records like corrections, duplicates, and withdrawals.
- Cast date, system size, storage, and cost fields to proper types; parsed 'Storage Capacity (kWh)' into a has_storage flag.
- Cleared Cost/Watt values outside a plausible $0.10-$50/W range (a small number of data-entry outliers) rather than trying to guess a corrected value.
- Checked whether Cost/Watt bundles storage cost: storage-attached systems show notably higher Total System Cost for only modestly larger system_size_kw, so storage cost is bundled in. Median cost/watt is therefore reported separately for PV-only and storage-attached systems rather than as one mixed pre/post NBT number.
- Grouped installers outside the top 10 by 12-month volume into an 'Other installers' category for the market-share chart.
- Published only summary tables (counts, sums and a few precomputed medians), not applications. The 12 largest cities are named; every other city, and any city or installer cell with fewer than 10 applications, is combined into an 'All other' row so totals still add up. Row-level data is not republished because of the publisher's Terms of Use; the figures were computed from the publisher's file.
416,755 applications in the publisher's file, 102,529 in scope, published as 1,125 summary rows. Every derived figure on this page (changes, indexes, averages, counts) is computed from the published rows, and the table under each chart says how.
Checks
- 17 checks passed against the publisher's published summaries; a statewide file (PG&E, SCE, SDG&E) was used only for cross-checks.
- Cost per watt is reported separately for PV-only and storage systems, because storage cost is bundled into the total.
- Each table on this page is the published chart data in solar.json, shown row for row.
The queries
The query runs on the table la_solar_by_city, la_solar_by_tariff, la_solar_received_by_month, la_solar_last_12_months, la_solar_medians (five summary tables). Open it in Live SQL, which runs DuckDB in your browser on the same public tables; the query loads ready to run.
Battery share by tariff
Open in Live SQLSELECT nem_tariff, SUM(n) AS n, round(100.0*SUM(CASE WHEN has_storage THEN n ELSE 0 END)/SUM(n),1) AS storage_attach_pct FROM la_solar_by_tariff WHERE nem_tariff IN ('2.0', 'NBT') GROUP BY 1 ORDER BY 1
Median system size (kW) by year
Open in Live SQLSELECT CAST(year_approved AS VARCHAR) AS yr, round(median_system_size_kw, 1) AS median_kw, n_systems AS n FROM la_solar_medians WHERE slice = 'by_year' ORDER BY 1
Third-party-owned share by year
Open in Live SQLSELECT CAST(extract(year FROM month_approved) AS VARCHAR) AS yr, round(100.0*SUM(n_third_party_yes)/SUM(n_third_party_known),1) AS tpo_pct FROM la_solar_by_city GROUP BY 1 ORDER BY 1
Top 10 cities, last 12 months
Open in Live SQLSELECT name AS city, n FROM la_solar_last_12_months WHERE breakdown = 'city' AND NOT is_remainder ORDER BY n DESC LIMIT 10
Caveats
- Covers only Southern California Edison territory; the City of Los Angeles (LADWP) and other municipal utilities (Burbank, Glendale, Pasadena) are not included, so this is LA County within SCE's service area, not the whole county. The source file is the publisher's 5-year SCE-only export (approved dates from September 2021 onward), not the full multi-utility statewide history. The file leaves out applications still pending, so received counts for the latest months are low. Only summary tables are published: the publisher's Terms of Use restrict extracting or distributing its content, so row-level data is not republished and every figure was computed from the publisher's file. In the city and installer breakdowns, any cell with fewer than 10 applications is combined into an 'All other' row; the tariff and period table has no place or installer, so its small cells are kept.
Releases and revisions
- As of Aug 31, 2026. Pending applications are not in the file, so recent received counts rise as they are approved.
03Sources
Sources and licence.
- California DGStats Interconnected Applications, SCE 5-year export California DGStats (PG&E, SCE, SDG&E / CPUC). No open license; the publisher's Terms of Use apply.
Licence: No open license; the publisher's Terms of Use apply. Public data, not my business.
Download the chart data
Each CSV is made in your browser from the rows in that chart's table.
04Contact
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